We are fast closing in on the biggest fight in boxing or MMA history.
I always look at these fights dispassionately as i am a real ‘nuts and bolts’ type of guy.
What i do see is some things that may very well play out unlike any fight we have seen Mayweather in before, and it distresses me to say, he may even lose.
Here is why. Mayweather is an “anti Boxer” meaning he does not really ‘give’ it to people, ie setting them up with the jab, wearing down the body, hurting one area the moving somewhere else when you must defend it.
He is more of a ‘take’ style of boxer, he takes things away from you, your jab with the pull counter, your power with his footwork. and your combos with his roll. But to be able to do this he needs certain attributes and he has had these throughout his career.
If my statistical knowledge is correct he has had the reach on every opponent arm length wise. Also I cannot think of a fight in which he did not ‘out clinch’ an opponent. Ans he has also had better legs than all opponent.
But here is the problem with McGregor.
Athletically he may have equal leg nimbleness, but this fight wont come down to that much like that Paquaio fight was not a battle of legs. Also Floyd is 40 and the first thing to go are the legs in all fighters.
Floyd will NOT have the reach, now even if McGregor was a jabber this would be an issue, but as a left lead our a counter left over opponents right lead are his best punches it will throw a few new things into the programmed radar of Floyd’s go to moves.
Also the roll and clinch, Floyd’s get out of jail move. The timing, punch patterns and clinch will not be in his favour with McGregor.
So I would say Floyd at a basic level ruins a jab, uses his legs, pot shots and neutralises with the roll and clinch.
The legs wont be the answer – Hatton showed the roll means you have to back straight up and will always be vulnerable to inside and you can’t pivot AND roll
The Ruining of the jab wont be the answer, Connor is a southpaw and uses his kicks to set up anyway so he wont rely on his jab like some more traditional boxers
His go to pot shot is Connors favorite counter – When its southpaw against orthodox, it’s a misconception the straight lead wins, it’s actually the counter to this that wins EVERY time
Roll and clinch will be the last thing he will want to do against Connor. Roll and clinch on the inside against a bigger powerful taller grappler from MMA? No… Dont do that, ever.
Floyd to win will have to become basic, it will be the jab, the middle exchange range and the combos that win it if he does, much like the Demarcus Corley fight, he will have to back Connor up and put heat on him… If he lets Connor combine Midana style inside, Hatton style pressure, and De lahoys style side… plus all his X factors, might be the most embarrassing thing Floyd has ever done.